Update (2006/06/02) : see my post explaining that this post really isn't about destroying Business 2.0 at all.

Business 2.0 s May issue has a pull out section on the future of wireless. Semacode is mentioned as one of the feature companies under the the Location Based Services category.

I usually ignore what the mass media predicts about whatever industry I'm working in (operating systems, software, mobile, whatever). But I had to read this one since Semacode's in it and they are pretty good in the area of features. The problem is that they offer no real hope that we'll ever see this kind of usability on a mobile phone.

One-by-one, it's hard to see how the features are going to become commercial. Location-based push is a lot less pleasant than the industry seems to think. Anyone who subscribes to a service that alerts them as they pass by a location is going to be very sensitive to spam. That means you need a highly-developed technology that can assist people in sorting out what they want and what they don't want. This is a "channel" problem similar to the one that PointCast had back in the 90s. With so many potential information providers vying for your attention, it's too easy to drown a user in a sea of crap.

Mobile presence/instant messaging is also hard. I hear that Skype has just added the ability to send SMS. That's nice but it's going to cost because the operators charge an arm and a leg for SMS gateways and then they nickle-and-dime their customers to death on SMS termination charges. The problem is that the operators are not the ones (right now) who are going to see the brand stickyness and benefits from offering AIM or MSN messenger on their devices. It will stay expensive until they do.

VoIP and mobile integration is another obvious service that would be huge for consumers and businesses alike if it were offered. It would be lovely if I could log into Skype on my phone and receive calls seamlessly between the two. Phones like the Nokia N91 with Wi-Fi built in could multihome between the cellular network and Wi-Fi based on whichever is available and cheapest. If I could link my address book on the phone with Skype, it could automatically call into a local Skype number when calling them, saving me long distance on international calls.

The problem is that it's hard to see how this is going to happen in the real world. Maybe big manufacturers like Nokia (market cap US$100B) will start to buy operators. Then they could introduce IM as a "loss-leader" type service where messaging is free or available at a low monthly rate.

Actually, that's exactly what Apple will have to do if/when they ever bring out a mobile product . Steve Jobs gets "whole products" and he won't ship just a phone but a set of features and services to go with it. To do that he'll either have to hoodwink an operator into a joint venture (which I find unlikely, since they are super tough negotiators). Or, he'll have to start an MVNO or simply buy a small operator.

Everyone focuses on the iPhone as though it's just a lump of hardware. In reality it would be a hardware, software, and service package. You'd get iChat/IM, iTunes Music store downloads, and maybe video chat all built into the pricing plans. Just like the iPod — where iTunes and the store are just as important as the nifty scroll wheel and translucent plastics .

If they can pull it off it would be a breakthrough and I and everyone else would be super keen to buy that whole product. I'm not sure if Apple has the power to pull it off, and I'd love to see them have real competition. Nokia has some of the same qualities as Apple has, and they're a lot bigger, so maybe they can see the light and bring out the integrated product that myself and others dream of. Until then, Business 2.0's "Wireless Future" will still be technology without a business model.