Update 2007-01-10: Wow, this really negative. I hope that in the flesh this device is better than it seems from the videos and specs. And it's not worth underestimating the iPod upgrade factor. But still.. that's a hefty price and a hefty 2-year committment and so I bet that this thing comes with an equally hefty bill of materials (big screen, fast processor...). But it's expensive anyway, much more than an iPod and a free phone. I think this is going to be high-end only. Sales might reach 10 million in a year, but they won't be taking away anyone else's market share I don't think. And I'm serious about touchscreens -- which I was reminded of when I fumbled with my Nokia this morning to snooze the alarm by touch. How's that going to work on a touchscreen?

Two years is a long time. Long enough for Samsung and Blackberry to make substantial advances in the art of sleek and black. Long enough for Sony Ericsson to release a wave of walkman phones. And most important, long enough for Nokia to develop and release the N-Series, their "portable multimedia computers". All of which, combined, make the iPhone more or less an also-ran upon release.

Basically, when Apple entered the mp3 player market, the laptop market, and the computer market, all of the competition was physically crap (remember the grey boxes?). The situation, unfortunately, is different with mobile phones. Many companies are already making phones that are physically beautiful and rock solid on the outside.

Apple's forte has always been the user experience. Here, the wind is slightly more in Apple's favour. Most of the phone companies still haven't cracked the code on a good UI. There is however, one major exception and that's Nokia. It is a major exception, since Nokia's market share is over 30%. Even the other companies have UIs that are pretty and somewhat (if not terrifically) functional.

But Nokia really is a new kind of competitor for Apple but they also care deeply about UE and UI. They're even well known for it (remember those old 90s-era Nokias? They won awards for that.) The user interface on their new phones is not perfect, but it's very, very good. It's also designed for expansion, so Nokia is able to add new features without redesigning the whole system.

How about features? Again, I'm disappointed by the iPhone. There's nothing new here. The radio is "only" 2.5G, the camera is very disappointing at 2MP, and the rest of the features are matched one-to-one by other phones at the same price. Anyone seen the N95 yet?

Update 2006-01-10: It's not programmable!!! Programmability. This is now becoming a key feature and it's just going to get bigger and bigger as mobiles become more powerful and more flexible. Presumably the iPhone will be programmable but will it have Java ME (J2ME)? That's pretty key since it's already the de-facto software platform on mobiles with something like a billion phones installed base. I don't think many people are going to want to port their apps to whatever C-based SDK Apple is going to offer.

Last but not least, is integration. Here's the only factor playing in Apple's favour. The iPhone integrates with iTunes, the music store, the video store, and all that jazz. Nokia and Sony Ericsson may have their own sync apps but none of them will be quite as good. My bet is that the main iPhone customers will be people who justify the cost by replacing an old phone and an iPod at the same time.

Oh wait, there's one more thing. As Steve would say. I don't like touch-screen interfaces. What were they thinking? There's just no replacement for the tactile feel of a physical button. The movement under the finger, the click (physical, not just sound). It's delicious. I think that a touch-screen only UE will never be able to replace that. And if you need proof of that, just look at the abysmal failure of the P9XX series from Sony Ericsson, the Palm (OK those are both stylus) and the interface on my camcorder, which is all touch-based and lacks feedback completely.

I love Apple, and I really genuinely wanted to be surprised to find that Apple had found some genius way to make the phone new again or invent some new device category. Even though I doubted they would ... and they haven't. :-(

(Note: I originally published my iPhone predictions almost exactly two years ago (Dec 2004) but MobileWhack has just disappeared it. You can still see it in the internet archive ... but ... Needless to say, I am Not Amused. And I am Exchanging Words with the Persons in Question.)